BRANDON J. WEICHERT | THE WEICHERT REPORT
By now it should be clear that former Vice-President Joe Biden will be the Democratic Party’s nominee in the 2020 presidential election. After months of breathless anticipation; of feverish attempts by the neoliberal elite who rule the Democratic Party, the Bernie wave is dissipating. He’s simply too divisive and too unconventional for many voters.
Sure, he gets the Millennial votes (mostly) but who the Hell cares about that?
My generation is a rising force in American politics and it will become even more potent as time progresses. But, we are clearly not yet there in 2020.
Biden swept the Super Tuesday primaries. This is especially true in the Southern states. Specifically, Biden played well among the elderly populations and African-American populations in those states.
Also, the fact that other candidates competing for similar voters in the DNC primary, such as Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg, ended their bids for the presidency and endorsed Biden gave the former vice-president a real boost going into Super Tuesday.
Democrat “strategists” on cable news are gushing about how well Biden played in the traditionally older and more conservative voting populations of the South. They use this fact to highlight their hope that Biden will compete better against Trump for mainstream voters when the General Election begins.
These pundits miss the forest for the trees.
As I said above, it’s true that the new dynamism in politics is still forming–and will be in flux until the Baby Boomers are no longer as dominant of a force in American politics. It is also true that 2020 is yet another transition away from the postwar way of doing American, corporate-style politics, as much as 2016 was. So, while not everything is new, the traditional way of doing things–the old views–are not entirely applicable anymore either.
What made Trump a winner in 2016 was the fact that he not only personally campaigned in every state, notably industrial states, but that he said and believed things that resonated with most voters in those states who are traditional Democrats.
Everyone assumed that Hillary Clinton in 2016 would be protected, if all else failed, by her mythical blue wall (industrial states, such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and even Minnesota). Yet, the combination of Hillary’s toxic personality, her refusal to physically campaign in those states, and Trump’s rhetoric on trade allowed for Trump to penetrate that Blue Wall–bigly.
Joe Biden, as I argued two years ago, plays harder for the industrial, working-class voters. But, nowhere near as hard as Bernie Sanders–who has a consistent claim to being as anti-free trade and protectionist as Donald Trump. Still, Biden is clearly the frontrunner now, given the victory he enjoyed on Super Tuesday.
Yet, the question of whether or not Biden will provide a sizable enough challenge for Trump in the industrial belt is not clear cut. Yes, Biden pretends to be a working man. No, I do not believe he will ultimately win the day against Trump in those industrial states.
Further, Biden’s big wins were in the South during the Democratic primary. As I said elsewhere, the south, even in a Democratic Party primary, is infinitely more conservative (therefore, moderate in this case) than other states. A candidate like Bernie Sanders was not going to win. Though, Bernie did come in second place in Texas.
Still, Bernie lost the top slot. Biden got it. I was surprised by that, as it appeared as though the youth and Latinos in the state would push him over the edge there. In a fight against Trump, though, at least in the mostly Republican South–especially with 94 percent of Republican voters being galvanized for the president in 2020–it seems unlikely that Biden will be as impressive as Trump will be there.
This means that Biden now has to rely on minority voters and young people. He also has to rely on mythical moderates. I am not so convinced that this can catapult the former vice-president to victory. After all, not all moderates support Trump. I spoke with a gentleman two days ago while waiting for a flight who indicated he was by no means a Trump supporter but he found the Democrats to be a “disaster” and he was disgusted by the impeachment trial last year.
I believe there are many more voters out there like him. They don’t like Trump’s antics, but they prefer his policies. This is especially true when matched against Joe Biden who is, for all intents-and-purposes, the Gaffe-Master. If Trump is viewed by some moderates as a troglodyte then I believe that Biden is viewed as a buffoon. Trump is competent but, at times, mean. Biden appears as totally incompetent and senile. It’s not a good look for Biden.
Looking at the way a General Election may play out in 2020: the states where Biden has thus far enjoyed the largest victories are the states where Trump (any Republican, really) will be strongest. There is a question as to whether or not Biden can win in Michigan. While many pundits insist that Biden will coax a larger turnout of minority voters than Hillary could, which could flip the state in his favor, that will remain to be seen.
Trump did win Michigan–but just barely–in 2016.
Bottom line: time will only tell, but I believe that Biden’s ability to compete for many of the same voters in 2020 that Trump won over in 2016 will actually be his undoing. One must usually add new members to a coalition. Biden does not do that. If Bernie does not get the DNC nomination this year (he will not, as I have said, one way or the other be getting the nomination), a large chunk of Democrats will sit the election out (or vote for Trump out of spite, as many did in 2016).
Meanwhile, Biden will be competing for a decreasing share of “undecided” voters–who have already proven their preference for the “conservative” choice. In the DNC primary, thus far, the blessed undecideds opted for Biden as their safer choice rather than the radicalism of Bernie.
Who is to say such voters, when presented with the choice between an unproven leader and that of the incumbent, Donald Trump, will not simply choose not to change horses midstream as the old and terrible cliche goes?
And can we also bear in mind the utterly grotesque levels of corruption the Biden family was engaged in throughout Joe Biden’s career in politics, specifically during his time as vice-president? Believe me, President Trump’s team has not–and they plan on making sure that everyone remembers as time gets closer to November.
Trump will continue enjoying a massive amount of enthusiasm from Republican voters. He will also likely retain most of the working-class votes. And if Candace Owens is anywhere near correct, even a small percentage shift in African-American voters–during such a close election–will likely prove decisive in Trump’s favor (and the number of African-American voters who flip for Trump, I believe, will be very small as Henry Olsen has warned GOP leaders about).
Joe Biden will win the DNC primary but he will lose to Donald Trump at that point.
The only matchup that totally shakes up the political map is a Trump-Bernie fight…which is something our oligarchs will never allow. Biden’s “strengths” in the DNC primary will be his undoing in the General Election.
Everyone, deep down, knows this yet they press ahead.
I suppose the DNC elite would rather lose an election and endure another Trump term rather than lose their grip on power over the DNC and risk being torn apart by a socialist revolution.