God Save Us From Our Allies

“America’s allies must do what they can, when they can, against whomever they perceive as a threat. The United States will always have their backs; we will gladly provide intelligence and logistical support to these states.”

America’s Ace-in-the-Hole: Japan

“Japan is America’s ace-in-the-hole when it comes to China. The United States should encourage Japan to take greater levels of active defense of their homeland, and to become a normal country with a military force again. After all, Japan’s military and not China’s is the most advanced and capable military in the Asia-Pacific today. Fully normalizing their country’s armed forces could solidify this fundamental truth and put the Chinese back on their heels, buying America much-needed time to solidify its own global dominance, and to keep China back.”

Taking the Tumen River Region: China’s Plan

“The Tumen River Region is a critical factor in all Chinese designs for dealing with North Korea. And, now that North Korea is aiming to play all three great powers: the United States, China, and Russia off each other, expect Pyongyang to use the Tumen River Region in a bid to force both Beijing and Moscow to hew closer to its geopolitical desires.”

South Korea Falls for the Trap

“Be ready, friends: in the coming months and year the North will continue to walk softly until it believes it has separated the South from the United States fully (and/or until the Americans become distracted with something else). One way or the other, war is all but assured at this point, as it is unlikely that President Trump will favor the humiliation of America at the hands of either North Korea or China (or South Korea for that matter). The amount of military equipment and resources that have been deployed (and continue to be deployed) to South Korea indicate that the Trump administration is going to enforce de-nuclearization at all costs–even if it must go it alone.”

Balancing the Equation with China by Arming Taiwan

“My recommendation would be to give Taiwan scores of cruise missiles (or to encourage the Taiwanese to build massive amounts of their own cruise missiles), coupled with the EA-18 Growlers (as well as the E-2D Hawkeyes that support the Growlers) that would be needed to suppress and overcome the Chinese S-400 threat. Taiwan has a handful of Hawkeyes and would need considerable amounts of Growlers to make their S-400 countermeasures fully effective. The United States must make selling Taiwan these upgraded systems a major priority in its relations with Taiwan.”

It’s A Trap! North Korea Wants Talks with South Korea to Buy Their Nuclear Program Time

“Whether it’s in 18 months or four years from now, the North is going to strike the South–and it won’t be a pinprick strike either. Kim Jong-un wants South Korea. It is a fundamental component of his regime’s existence. It cannot be removed from young Kim’s psyche until he settles the issue on his own. The course is set. There will be little deviation. Since, my initial hopes for a Manhattan-like Project that would deploy space-based missile defenses into orbit does not seem to be at hand, the Trump Administration must decide whether it can live in a world where the kooky Kim regime can permanently threaten the United States with nuclear retaliation or attack.”

Outlook: Trump’s North Korea Options Are Bad–But Choose He Must!

“The president’s options on North Korea are bad. However, the president must make a choice. This is the sad world we currently live in today. It’s a simple lose-lose calculation: do we lose little by dictating the course of conflict with preemptive strikes before North Korea gets fully functional ICBMs, or do we lose big by suffering a mass casualty attack and, potentially, being forced out of the Asia-Pacific entirely?”

The West Still Doesn’t Understand North Korea

“The Kim regime’s entire existence is wedded to the idea that only that family can remake Korea whole and protect it from the outside world. Deals with the West buy North Korea time, and are wholly one-sided. Inevitably (and sooner than anyone thinks), the North will strike out with nuclear weapons, and we are entirely unprepared for that day.”

North Korea’s Nuclear Program and the Cone of Uncertainty

“What is certain that, at present, the North will have a working nuclear arsenal that can threaten anywhere in the world no later than 18 months from now. What is also certain is that, the longer that the Trump Administration delays decisive action, the more likely that the United States will have to say “goodbye” to one of its prized cities, and will still be forced to defend South Korea from a probably invasion from the North (and/or retaliate against the North for likely attacks against Japan).”