ANDREW BUTLER | SEEKING ALPHA
- There are predictions that global oil demand will drop by 3-million barrels per day because of the Coronavirus contagion. So why is China stocking-up?
- In the SARS contagion starting in November 2002, constraints on flying and public transport increased driving, which is much less fuel-efficient.
- SARS was controlled by mid-2003, but the disruptions to transport continued until early 2005. China’s oil consumption went up by 11% in 2003 and by 16.5% in 2004.
- Extrapolating the China/SARS model for “what-if COVID-19 goes global”,spits-out a number of nine-million barrels per day of extra oil demand in 2020.
- Long oil and long offshore E&P.
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